TL;DR
- Introduction of the Alternate Theory: CryptoCon introduces the Alternate Theory, predicting Bitcoin (BTC) could hit a new all-time high by early May 2024, offering an alternative to the Halving Cycles Theory.
- Theory Details: This theory outlines a four-year cycle with different phases (accumulation, preparation, new ATH, bear market), suggesting BTC prices might range from $50k to over $100k by May 2025.
- Comparison and Market Outlook: CryptoCon favors the Halving Cycles Theory for a November 2025 ATH, but acknowledges the Alternate Theory as a potential outcome. Market validation of either theory is pending, with future market dynamics being key to their accuracy.
How the Alternate Theory Plays Out
CryptoCon, a popular analyst and creator of Bitcoin’s Halving Cycles Theory, is back with another thread on the leading cryptocurrency. This time, the analyst is taunting its followers with the Alternate Theory — which could see BTC reaching a new ATH by early May 2024.
As the name suggests, the Alternate Theory is an alternative to the Halving Cycles Theory, in which every cycle’s top and bottom occur within a window of +/- 21 days from November 28th in their respective years.
However, the Alternate Theory suggests BTC could reach a new ATH in 2024. CryptoCon bases his analysis on four years —marked in different colors to denote seasons of accumulation, preparation, new ATH, and a bear market.
Halving Cycles vs. Alternate Theory
The chart below suggests we have surpassed the first season — accumulation — and we’re currently in the middle of the preparation phase. Interestingly, the blue year also hints that a new ATH could be reached by May 2024, with prices theoretically soaring above $50k.
Secondly, the Red Year suggests prices ranging from $50k to over $100k per Bitcoin. The projected cycle top is envisioned around May 11th, 2025, followed by the next bottom approximately a year later.
“Blue year calls for prices to spend most of its time around the median (half of the previous ATH, $34,500). Which you can say we’ve done. It also says that price would advance to new ATHs at the end of the year.” – CryptoCon stated.
Halving Cycles Theory vs Alternate Theory
CryptoCon stated he feels more inclined towards the Halving Cycles Theory and BTC reaching a new ATH by November 2025. However, it’s good to consider this new theory if price action takes a different turn, the analyst added.
Yes! +/- 21 days from Nov 28th, 2025
BitTime says Decmeber
But good to consider this Alternate Theory as a possibility if price action shows us
But for now it hasn’t
— CryptoCon (@CryptoCon_) November 14, 2023
Market prices have not validated either theory — only the technical indicators offered the primary basis for analysis. The coming year’s market dynamics will be crucial in determining which theory gains credence and provides a more accurate reflection of Bitcoin’s future trajectory.
So far, the analyst has predicted and forecasted more conservative and realistic price predictions compared to the exaggerated price targets from other investors. As CryptoPotato reported, the analyst suggested BTC could reach $60k by 2024.
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